🔗 Share this article

A decade after the UK embarked on a hurried public vote that divided the country and triggered turmoil, a caution comes from across the Irish Sea: it may occur once more.

Policymakers and electorate entered unwittingly Brexit and the similar may happen with a national vote on a unified Ireland, initiating convulsions for which no one is prepared.

That is the message from two prominent journalists from either side of the Irish border who have collaborated to examine the benefits and drawbacks of Northern Ireland departing the UK to establish a new state with the Republic of Ireland.

Political Establishments Ill-Equipped

The author and columnist and Sam McBride, have concluded that the administrative systems in Ireland and Britain are extremely ill-prepared for a possibly contentious and seismic public vote.

"The crucial insight of Brexit remains unheeded, which is that developments can come out of the blue and can gather momentum rapidly," the commentator said. "I would suggest that the governmental framework of our archipelago remains very unstable."

Book Publication Aims to Provoke Discussion

The team have analysed the governmental, economic and societal reasons for any governmental shift in a book, The Case For and Against Unification, published by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.

They hope to stir debate on the matter with a tour of lectures that will take them to Westminster early next month.

"What concerns all parties, or should haunt everybody, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," said O’Toole.

"We do not want a referendum on a binary, vague proposition whose consequences have remained undefined because then you find yourself with an highly divided society where the losing side are not reconciled to losing and the those successful lack clarity precisely what it is that they have won."

Governmental Mandate

Under the peace accord, the Northern Ireland government minister should call a public vote on Irish unity if it seems probable that a majority would approve.

Sinn Féin and other nationalists argue this point is approaching, and a organisation called Ireland’s Future has rallied support, but both governments and unionists minimise the likelihood, making it uncertain if and when there could be a referendum.

Absence of Substantive Discussion

Partisan language for and against unity has masked the lack of informed dialogue, noted the journalist.

"People tend to be for or against the concept but the detailed consideration which may surpass that to make it possible hasn't for the most part happened. Much has gone on in universities but hardly any elected officials or activists seek to involve themselves even with the fundamentals. For instance, what type of nation should be desired? Unitary? Decentralised?"

Volume's Strategy

In the book, neither author supports unity or the status quo. They writes two articles that strive for objectivity in detailing the rationale for a unified Ireland and the argument opposing it, marshalling economic and social data, past examples and structural examples.

Arguments encompass national emblems, taxes, healthcare systems, retirement funds, sovereign debt obligations and the danger of loyalist violence. The aim is to enlighten and stimulate conversation.

"There is significant curiosity in the subject but there is still lacking a debate," said O’Toole. "Dialogue implies an acceptance of the notion that there might be good arguments on both sides."

Simultaneous Plebiscites

A public vote in Northern Ireland would also trigger one in the republic, where citizens say they prefer unity but reject greater financial contributions or implementing a different emblem to recognise pro-UK communities' British culture.

"Policymakers in Ireland should work out what the proposal from Irish nationalism is beyond just declaring: 'We seek a unified Ireland and we value you'," remarked O’Toole.

Likelihood of Referendum

The journalist thinks a national vote in his generation is probable and that it might occur unexpectedly. "You could have just a mad or a poor or a negligent secretary of state who says: 'We should proceed and get it out of the way.'"

Each of the nationalists and pro-UK supporters have credible, valid points, he commented. "One side will prevail on this issue and somebody will eventually lose but all factions has has something to learn from the other's positions."

Appeal for Broader Dialogue

Westminster should join the debate, said the analyst. "This is about your state. It's a British question as much as it is an Irish matter."