Diplomatic Proposals Set to be Presented to Russia Within Days, States Zelenskyy
Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy has announced that a framework for a peace deal developed with American diplomats are poised to be finalised in a matter of days. Afterward, American envoys are expected to submit the terms to the Russian leadership.
Berlin Talks Yield Major Headway, With Critical Obstacles Remain
Following extensive talks in Berlin, US officials indicated on Monday that approximately “90%” of the disputed points between Moscow and Kyiv had been resolved. Despite this optimistic assessment, an actual conclusion to the conflict is not guaranteed, particularly because Russia's absence from the ongoing discussions.
In the early hours of Tuesday, the Ukrainian president noted that the US Congress is expected to vote on security guarantees and that a finalised set of agreements could be prepared “today or tomorrow.” He added that, the U.S. would hold consultations with Russian representatives, leading to high-level meetings possibly this weekend.
Defense Assurances and Allied Backing
“The plan involves five documents. Some of them pertain to security guarantees: legally binding, that is, voted on and approved by the United States Congress,” the president commented to journalists. He stated that these assurances would “reflect article 5” of the Nato alliance.
On Monday, American representatives did not provide precise information regarding the probable makeup of the security package or what would happen if Moscow attempted to seize more land following an agreement. They did, however, confirm that the United States has no plans to deploy troops on the ground in Ukraine.
Leaders from the UK, France, Germany and several additional European countries issued a joint statement that troops from a “allied coalition” could “help with the rebuilding of Ukrainian military capabilities, in securing Ukraine’s skies, and in supporting maritime security, including through conducting operations within Ukraine.”
However, they did not proposing these measures would constitute guarantees matching NATO's Article 5. Furthermore, there is scant indication that Moscow is anywhere close to agreeing to the type of package under discussion between the U.S. and Ukraine.
Kremlin Response and Land Issue
On Tuesday, the Russian government stated it had not seen the details of the proposals on security guarantees. Additionally, a senior Russian diplomat, Sergey Ryabkov, asserted that the country would not agree to forces of Nato countries operating in Ukrainian territory “no matter what.”
The primary obstacle between the Ukrainian team and US negotiators continues to be the territorial question. A key demand involves Ukraine relinquishing the areas of the Donbas region it currently controls, while Ukraine wants to freeze the lines. “We are discussing the land dispute. You know, it is one of the key issues. Currently, there is no agreement on it yet,” Zelenskyy said following the Berlin discussions.
The US negotiation team, led by two senior advisors, has suggested a compromise solution. Under this plan would see Ukraine pull back, but Russia would not move forward, with the demilitarised area established as “a free economic zone.” Russia has suggested it could use police and national guard units rather than the army in such an area, suggesting it would still expect to control the territory.
“I want to stress once again: a ‘special economic zone’ does not mean controlled by Moscow. Not legally or in practice will we recognise Donbas – its currently occupied areas – as Russian. Absolutely,” said Zelenskyy.
Path Forward and Potential Outcomes
The way ahead is uncertain how Moscow and Kyiv will proceed on the territorial issue. The Ukrainian leader has earlier mentioned that a compromise solution such as a special economic area might be conceivable if the citizens of Ukraine approved it in a national vote. The major impediment is expected to arise when the proposals are presented to Russian president Vladimir Putin, who has shown no indication he is prepared to concede on his military objectives.
“If Putin rejects everything, we will face exactly what we are encountering on our plane right now – instability,” said Zelenskyy, making the statement as his aircraft departed from Berlin.
“I believe the United States will increase sanction pressure and supply more weapons if he rejects everything. I think, that would be a fair request from us to the United States,” he added.