Moving from Reluctant Admiration to Unease: Moscow Considers the Fall of Maduro.

A unexpected operation on the capital under cover of darkness, ending with the capture of the country's president. Within a day, the intervening power declares its plan to rule indefinitely.

That is precisely how Vladimir Putin envisaged his full-scale invasion of Ukraine playing out in February 2022. Instead, it was Donald Trump who executed it in Venezuela, in a operation widely condemned internationally, whisking away the Kremlin's historic ally the Venezuelan president, who now faces trial in New York.

Public Fury, Private Calculations

In public, Russian officials have expressed fury, condemning the attack as a blatant breach of international law and a dangerous precedent. Yet beyond the official statements, there is a sense of reluctant admiration – and even jealousy – at the effectiveness of a coup that Moscow itself once imagined, but could not carry out due to a series of intelligence blunders and stiff Ukrainian opposition.

“The mission was executed with precision,” wrote the pro-Kremlin Telegram channel Dva Mayora. “Most likely, this is precisely the way our 'special military operation' was supposed to proceed: fast, dramatic and decisive. It’s hard to believe Russia's top general expected to be fighting for this long.”

Such commentary have fueled a atmosphere of introspection among hardline commentators, with some publicly wondering how Moscow's anticipated lightning war in Ukraine turned into a long and bloody conflict.

A pro-Kremlin tech entrepreneur, said she felt “shame” on Russia's behalf given how audacious the American action seemed. “In the space of a day, the US detained Venezuela's leader and seemingly wrapped up his own 'military mission,’” she wrote.

A Network Unravels

For more than two decades, Venezuela worked to build a web of partners opposed to Washington – from Moscow and Beijing to Cuba and Iran – hoping to helping to shape a new axis able to challenge Washington.

Yet despite Russia's foreign minister pledging support for the Caracas government just in late December, hardly any experts ever believed Moscow would come to his rescue.

Mired in Ukraine, Russia has, over the past year, seen other important partners fall from power or weaken sharply – from Syria's leader to an ever-more fragile Iran – exposing the constraints of the Kremlin's reach.

“For Russia, the circumstances are deeply uncomfortable,” said a foreign policy analyst. “Venezuela is a close partner and fellow traveler, and the two leaders have longstanding ties, leaving Moscow with little choice but to voice condemnation. Yet providing any tangible support to a country so far away is simply not feasible – for technical and logistical reasons.”

Focus on the Main Front

There is also a deeper strategic consideration. The Kremlin's main focus, experts note, is Ukraine – and maintaining a productive dialogue with Trump on that front far outweighs the destiny of Caracas.

“The Russian and American leaders are currently focused on a far more consequential issue for Moscow: Ukraine. And for all the Kremlin's sympathies towards Caracas, it is not going to jeopardize a much larger strategic game with a critical partner over what it sees as a secondary concern,” the analyst concluded.

Concrete Losses and Emerging Risks

Still, Russia's diminished role in Venezuela carries several tangible costs for Moscow. If a US-friendly government were to emerge in Caracas, US defense specialists could gain access to large parts of the Venezuelan armed forces' arsenal, including advanced Russian-made systems.

Those include S-300VM air-defence systems sent over a decade ago, as well as an unknown quantity of Pantsir and Buk-M2 systems transferred in late 2025.

Moscow has also extended billions in loans to Venezuela, much of which it is now probably lost forever.

A more pressing concern for Moscow, however, is oil: US access to Venezuela's enormous oilfields could push global prices lower, threatening one of Russia's key revenue streams.

“If our American 'partners' secure Venezuela’s oilfields, more than half of the world’s oil reserves will end up under their control,” wrote a prominent Russian billionaire. “And it appears their strategy is to ensure that the price of our oil does not exceed $50 a barrel.”

A Dark Optimism

Yet, some in Moscow perceive a grim silver lining. The US seizure of Maduro, they argue, could strike a decisive blow to the rules-based international order and pave the way for a more nakedly 19th-century-style world – one where might, rather than rules, determines results.

“The US administration is ruthless and pragmatic in advancing its country's interests,” wrote Russia's former president with endorsement. “Ousting Maduro had no connection to drugs – only oil, and they openly admit this. The principle of might makes right is clearly more powerful than international law.”