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Europe breathed a deep collective sigh of relief on Monday, as the diplomatic emergency caused by the introduction of a new 28-point plan for achieving ceasefire appeared – temporarily – to have been stabilised. A senior US official spoke of "notable headway" after bilateral negotiations in Geneva. On Monday night, Russian leadership made its response: an extensive attack of missile and drone strikes on Kyiv.

The Cycle of Peace Talks and Military Action

The sequence of contrasting events captured the harsh reality of the outgoing year. By day, diplomatic battles are conducted: optimistic declarations are issued from various governments. Significant resources is expended on managing particular approaches. By night, the Kremlin clearly shows the world that, for them, war remains the main instrument for achieving "settlement".

After-Dark Attacks

As the offensive unfolded into the early hours of Tuesday, the immediate reality of Ukraine's defenselessness was revealed. Ukraine is capable of detecting missile launches from enemy soil, a capacity enabled by timely intelligence. From observation points, Ukrainian air force fighter jets that had been dispatched to counter approaching guided weapons flew past – modern combat jets supplied to Ukraine by Western partners.

Moments later, Kyiv's missile defense activated: defensive missiles targeted at a hostile projectile. This was a modern interception technology at work, most likely delivered by Western nations. Every firing shakes the surroundings, causing tremors. The brief panic quickly becomes resigned acknowledgment: possibly the approaching threat won't strike its target this time, sparing the city from catastrophe and further power outages.

Persistent Threats

Following this, a large-caliber weapon engaged a unmanned aircraft close by, part of a mobile-fire group – probably allied-provided weaponry. Regrettably, the bullets missed the opposing UAV – it maintained course toward its target.

With pauses, this carried on until dawn. Kyiv awoke to the daybreak reports: several casualties, damage and heating outages in many homes as a result of the evening attack. As always, everyone still maintained normal activities – experiencing conflict. But those entire period encapsulated Ukraine's vital need on external assistance – a reliance that neighboring countries are evidently unprepared to fill in the short term.

Unsuccessful Negotiations

The detailed framework from US administration provoked deep reactions, debate and profound anxiety – and momentarily shifted focus from Ukraine's largest corruption scandal in years. Yet, we have experienced comparable situations, after previous diplomatic encounters and international summits.

Every new initiative from US leadership follows the identical sequence: a negotiation push against Ukraine, which Kyiv, with allied governments, effectively counters. They contain the crisis but never actually achieve victory. This cycle will, undoubtedly, continue.

Tactical Assessments

It is tempting to accuse certain parties of consistently pushing Kremlin's demands. But that does not seem to be the complete picture. Washington works based on a premise understood by international relations experts: you cannot achieve through diplomacy what you have failed to defend militarily. The US administration assumes that it is impossible to force Russia to relinquish the land that it already controls in Ukraine's occupied territories.

The issue is that while recognising this factual reality, US leadership does little to discourage Russia, through words or deeds, from believing that the current condition will not change more in its advantage in the coming year.

Divergent Views

Therefore, Moscow is certain that the clock favors them – that Ukraine and its supporters are coming close to fatigue. Their incentive to sign a deal that does not give them the largest achievable advantage is almost completely absent. There may be numerous efforts to stop fighting, but they will continue as long as Russia's leader remains supremely confident in the result.

On the contrary, Kyiv believes that Ukraine can still hold out, gradually sacrificing civilians and areas but averting a total frontline collapse until situations evolve in its benefit.

Present Conditions

Factually, there are no genuine requirements for a armistice. Now, individual motivations are entering the equation: leadership ambitions to mediate resolution and secure international recognition, and the government's twin challenges – on one hand, not to estrange crucial supporters, and on the other, to rally Ukrainians around the national cause against any proposal Kyiv finds unsuitable, so that their attention does not shift toward internal issues. And although their task will now be considerably more difficult after recent developments, it remains very improbable that this will modify their basic position.

These conflicting dynamics are guiding negotiations.

Summary and Prospects

It took a only one week to eliminate the suggested clauses of the current initiative. Forceful and unpredictable management of the matter by US administration, pushback by Ukraine and the remaining European nations, along with soothing efforts of diplomats, and finally, recent disclosures, all achieved their purpose.

While new initiatives based on previous concepts are approaching, Kyiv, London and other European capitals should arrive at a critical understanding: Ukraine and Europe will only be able to counter negotiation assaults from Washington that are based on Russian demands and demonstrate certain reluctance to change the course of events, if they stand together and strengthen their defence capabilities at a considerably quicker tempo. If they do, no combination of diplomatic or military actions will be able to defeat them. In the meantime, Ukraine's ability to counter nocturnal attacks will, for the predictable period, mainly require ongoing international assistance.