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New Yorkers will discover the identity of their new city leader this election day, in a race that will determine who runs and defends the nation's largest city at a moment when Donald Trump has vowed to send armed forces to the city.

Against that backdrop, New York has witnessed a mayoral election that has matched two distinctly opposing Democratic figures against each other. The election has become an acrimonious showdown, laced with alleged racism and anti-Muslim sentiment, but it is the political differences between the two leading contenders that could have major implications for how the Democratic party performs in next year's congressional races.

The Rising Progressive

On the left side is Zohran Mamdani, the 34-year-old democratic socialist whose meteoric rise and people-powered movement has brought global notice. On the establishment side is Andrew Cuomo, the former New York governor now campaigning independently – and benefiting from the support of wealthy contributors and big business.

As the election approaches, it is Mamdani, the former longshot who defeated Cuomo in the Democratic primary who is solidly positioned as the frontrunner. The candidate, who has run on a platform of affordability and pledged to freeze rent for about two million New Yorkers, has outpaced Cuomo by double-digits across all surveys taken in October, and it is very much the progressive's race to lose.

The Controversial Campaign

Yet, the former governor, who stepped down as the state's leader in 2021 amid allegations of misconduct, has made it clear he will fight to the finish, and not necessarily in an fair manner. He has criticized his opponent's goals as unachievable, and in recent days chuckled along as a broadcaster made Islamophobic remarks about the candidate, who is Muslim. Two weeks ago, Cuomo was widely condemned as racist after posting an artificial intelligence video that featured a slew of racist stereotypes and showed Mamdani releasing a convicts.

It's been a rather grubby conclusion to an race that could be key to the path that the Democratic party, struggling in its response to Trump's authoritarian grabs, adopts in the near future.

Broader Consequences

Should Mamdani wins convincingly, the party establishment who have refused to endorse his bid will be forced to reckon with a platform that has appealed to voters' frustration at inequality, soaring price rises and the establishment. It would be difficult for the Senate leader and Hakeem Jeffries not to adopt at least some of Mamdani's ambitious ideas about affordability, given the fresh face has generated an excitement within the party arguably not seen since the Vermont senator ran for president in 2016.

However, if Cuomo, who had been expected to sail to victory in the Democratic primary, achieve a surprising riches-to-rags-to-riches victory, it could cement national Democrats' current model of cautious, lackluster resistance – a strategy that has angered the party base. A New York defeat of the progressive's optimistic platform could convince Schumer and Jeffries that the best plan is to remain in the political center – even as surveys show the present version of the Democratic party is widely disliked nationwide.

Campaign Energy

Voters in the city appear to favor the Mamdani vision. Polls show that his backers are far more enthusiastic about their choice than Cuomo backers, something that has been evident during the race. Mamdani's engaging content on digital platforms, his optimistic vision for New York and his readiness to actually get out and connect with voters in the metropolis has drawn an army of more than 50,000 supporters, many of them youth or first-time voters.

Personal Attacks

However, Cuomo, 67, isn't giving up. And with the risks stacked against him, the former governor has turned to ugly messaging in the final days.

After spending months throwing basically everything at his opponent to see what might stick, the independent has narrowed his focus on attacking the candidate personally. He has called Mamdani, who was of Ugandan origin to South Asian heritage, an "radical", and appeared on Fox Business for an interview with Maria Bartiromo, where Cuomo claimed New York “will not survive” his opponent as mayor. It hit bottom recently, when Cuomo laughed along and said “that’s another problem” after a radio host said Mamdani would “cheer” another terrorist attack.

Campaign Dynamics

This strategy echoes much of what the former president, who has deployed the national guard to Washington DC and warned to do the same to New York, has said about Mamdani, and perhaps that is expected. A set of billionaire New Yorkers, including some who donated to the Republican in the last presidential race, have invested heavily into trying to elect the independent elected, as other influential figures have urged the Republican candidate to withdraw from the race.

Political Histories

For the his team, and his billionaire supporters, are worried, it should not have reached to this point. When Mamdani, one of one hundred fifty state legislators, launched his campaign for mayor in last year, not many had known him, and in reality, barely anyone even noticed.

Cuomo, by comparison, eased his way into the race in this year and became the immediate frontrunner. He was the political heavyweight who seemingly held every edge. The quintessential establishment figure, he had wed a Kennedy and worked in a Democratic presidency. He became the state's leader in 2011, seventeen years after his parent, Mario Cuomo, stepped down from the same position.

The progressive, who was voted in to the state legislature in recently, does not have the same political heritage. But his commitment to providing free buses and free childcare – along with the freeze-the-rent pledge – offer a more positive vision of the future than his opponent's pessimistic predictions about “mayhem” and rising criminal activity, and his promise to increase police presence.

Recent Challenges

Nevertheless, the candidate has encountered some challenges in recent days, after video surfaced suggesting him suggesting the New York police department and the IDF were intertwined.

“We have to make clear that when the boot of the police is on your throat, it’s been influenced by the Israeli military,” the candidate said in the recording, filmed at a Democratic Socialists of America gathering in 2023. The progressive, a vocal opponent of Israel who has said the nation is engaging in atrocities in the Palestinian territory, indicated he was criticizing joint training exercises between the NYPD and Israeli forces.

Emotional Response

As the race closes, Mamdani seems to have gained empathy and backing, however, for his reaction to Cuomo’s increasing rhetoric.

The progressive responded to Cuomo’s terrorism comments in an emotional video. In it, the candidate recalled how, when he first ran for state assembly, a Muslim uncle suggested to him that he did not have to tell people about his religion. It was a lesson, Mamdani said, that many local Muslims had been told “again and again”: “That security could only be found in the margins of our community. That it is in those shadows alone where Muslims could express their true selves, and that if we were to step out from those seclusion, then it is in those shadows that we must set aside our beliefs.”

Addressing the actions of Cuomo and Sliwa, who has alleged Mamd