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Usually, the NFL's Coach of the Year trophy adheres to a straightforward script. It often functions as a type of apology. Sorry we got wrong your squad in our pre-campaign predictions.

On paper, it's a direct line: the coach who oversaw the most dramatic improvement wins the prize. In reality, it fuels an annual discussion about expectations and whether we're genuinely rewarding superior leadership or merely the most shocking surprise.

But the latest field is profoundly unique. The list of candidates is exceptionally talented. It has been the season of turnarounds. The NFL has been messy, with recent conference winners falling away and recent underperformers improving in unison. Under an normal season, a coach leading the his team to the summit of the AFC would make him the stone-cold front-runner. Yet in this wild and fun year, he's competing with several other exceptional candidates.

Here is how the ideal vote should be structured.

5) The Chicago Bears Coach, Chicago Bears, 11-5

Coach of the Year voters love signal-callers. History shows this. A certain coach in 2017. Another in 2020. A third in 2022. Should you solve a franchise QB, you're halfway home.

Ben Johnson hasn't just fixed his young quarterback; he's freed him. In the right environment, Williams has been afforded the chance to showcase his otherworldly ability. Since midseason onward, the Bears sit at fourth in offensive Expected Points Added per play. This isn't a brief surge – it's consistent performance. Under his guidance, the quarterback has become increasingly decisive, less reckless, and has eagerly submitted to the system instead of freelancing. It is an offense designed solely in the coach's vision: a bully-ball run game, a steady helping of play-action passes and a innovative passing attack that springs wide-open targets consistently. The QB has capitalized. And when easy reads weren't available, he's been capable to create magic from nothing.

Johnson arrived to the Bears with a specific offensive vision. Virtually every decision – rebuilding the trenches, utilizing the tight ends, turning the QB into a timing-based passer – has paid off. This is rare for a rookie head coach. And it's rarer yet for a leader who walked into the organization with the kind of hype he did. For two straight cycles, he was the most sought-after name on the head coaching carousel. But when it comes to selecting a head coach, there are zero sure things. Remarkably, Johnson has met the hype – and even surpassed them. He's proven not just to be a offensive dork but the type of culture builder that can inject new life into an franchise.

In a typical season, Johnson would be the runaway favorite. Yet this isn't a normal year!

Where Johnson's case runs a bit into trouble is on the defensive side. The Bears presently sit in the bottom third in defensive efficiency. They are living on takeaways, and turnovers are notoriously unreliable. Defensive minds can focus on creating turnovers, but nobody can ensure it. He is on the ballot because the offensive production is real. He's ranked lower because luck is doing too much of the defense's heavy lifting. With a few bounces of the ball, the Bears would be several wins behind. It's been an exceptional transformation, and the core is established for sustained winning. However Johnson falls short in this ranking.

4) The Jacksonville Jaguars Coach, Jacksonville Jaguars, Their Record

The Jaguars' coach is in a comparable situation to Johnson. He's another rookie head coach who has masterminded a dramatic turnaround. Over the stretch run of the year, he has Trevor Lawrence playing the best overall ball of his career. And he's also spearheaded the transformation of a defense that now ranks fifth in the league in Expected Points Added per play.

What's more impressively, Coen has mastered the leadership stuff, which wasn't a guarantee after his initial press conference appearances and some of his offseason moves.

The coach took over Jacksonville with an exceptionally raw staff. Unlike Johnson, who packed themselves with the perfect coaching mix of new ideas and veteran savvy, he bet on first-timers. From the head coach himself to assistants to position coaches, the Jags are stocked with rookies. That type of setup is exciting on paper, but often fails in practice – with other teams are a cautionary tale – because everyone is learning a their job on the fly. Yet he has managed to bring the entire group and all elements together.

After an early strong beginning, there was a possibility that the campaign would go off the rails. A mid-year collapse had the team stumbling again. That's usually when leaders panic and change too much. He did not. Rather, he simplified the approach. The offense stopped pursuing home-run plays and started seeking consistent ones. The coach refocused the offense around key players and the ground attack, and encouraged Lawrence to use his mobility more often.

The results are obvious. The Jags have won multiple games consecutively and will be the conference's number three seed. Coen gets the tiniest deduction in the standings because he took over a skilled team, but he has demonstrated he can get the most out of that roster.

3) The Seattle Seahawks Coach, His Team, Their Record

Every Coach of the Year narrative has a hinge moment. For Mike Macdonald, it was his quarterback move.

Moving on from a incumbent, bringing in a new signal-caller and partnering him with an new play-caller could have ended the campaign in October. Instead, it shaped it. Through the mid point of the season, the new QB was an Most Valuable Player contender. He has regressed since that time, dropping to a lower rank in EPA per dropback over the second half of the season, placing him just one place ahead of peers.

Still