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For a brief period, Donald Trump gave the impression to embrace a strong position concerning the Ukrainian conflict. Following making warnings of "serious consequences" in August if Vladimir Putin carried on hindering ceasefire discussions, he eventually introduced considerable penalties on the Russian primary oil companies, Rosneft and Lukoil. This decision seriously impacted Putin's capacity to finance his military invasion in the region.

However, via his recently unveiled comprehensive peace initiative for Ukraine, which was drafted by both nations' diplomats excluding Ukraine's or European involvement, he has apparently gone back to his pro-Putin approach.

Favoring Military Action

The former president's initiative would in practice favor Putin for attacking Ukraine while putting the country's political freedom in danger. Despite strong proclamations that "Ukraine's independence will be confirmed", significant aspects of the plan effectively weaken that essential independence. What represents a Moscow's wish would certainly be a Ukrainian nightmare.

Reflecting his business past, Trump continues to view the war as a simple territorial dispute, like handing Russia a portion of Ukraine's land will appease the president. Yet, Putin's invasion is not only about controlling a charred swath of deindustrialized territory in the Donbas region. It is about the nation's democratic governance – and the Russian leader's clear desire to weaken it so it no longer acts as an attractive example for the Russian citizens of the responsible government that Putin's increasing autocracy prevents them.

Border Giveaways

Although freezing in place the currently split regions of Kherson and Zaporizhzhia, Trump's plan would force Ukraine to surrender the entire Donetsk region. In addition to favoring the Russian Federation with territory that its troops have been unsuccessful to seize in exceeding a decade of fighting, this concession would leave Ukraine's military defenses severely compromised.

This region is the location of Ukraine's much-vaunted "defensive line", the well-established military defenses that constitute a key impediment to Russian advances. The proposal would have Ukraine surrender these positions, leaving Putin a unobstructed path to Kyiv if he later decide to resume the conflict.

Military Restrictions

Then, in a step that would make additional fighting more feasible for Russia, the plan would mandate the nation to cut the numbers of its military from their present 800,000 to 850,000 troops to a maximum of 600,000. Importantly, the plan places no such restrictions on the invading army.

Seemingly as a gesture to Putin's attempts to depict the nation's democratically elected leadership as Nazis, Trump's proposal states: "Every radical ideology and activities must be condemned and prohibited." Seemingly to underscore this aspect, it demands that "Ukraine will hold political contests in three months" of a truce. Meanwhile, the proposal places no condition that the Russian leader jeopardize his authoritarian rule by conducting democratic processes in Russia.

Security Assurances

Certainly, the initiative includes Russia commit not to "enter bordering nations" and to "establish in law its stance of non-violence towards European nations and Ukraine". But considering that Putin has broken similar accords in the past – such as the 1994 Budapest memorandum, in which the Russian government pledged to honor the nation's sovereignty in exchange for relinquishing its Soviet-era atomic arms, and the previous peace deals, in which Russia agreed to a truce and a return of seized land in the Donbas to the government – how should we believe Russia this time?

For this reason the Ukrainian government has been so adamant on western security guarantees. Although the initiative promises a "strong coordinated armed reaction" should the Russian Federation restart its invasion, and includes that "The nation will receive reliable defense commitments", the details include vague to alarming. The plan would not just deny Ukraine alliance membership but also preclude alliance nations from stationing troops on Ukrainian territory, thereby blocking the peacekeeping contingent, reportedly headed by Britain and France, on which Ukraine had been counting to deter Russia from rebuilding his weakened military, restocking, and reinvading.

International Response

An additional parallel deal apparently would grant Ukraine with a alliance-like protection assurance, in which any future "significant, deliberate, and sustained aggression" by Russia on Ukraine "shall be regarded as an assault jeopardizing the stability and safety of the allied countries." This indicates a armed reaction. However different from a powerful national defense – the nation's most reliable deterrent against renewed invasion – the success of the supplementary deal would hinge on the dedication of Western powers, including Trump, to react with force to Putin's hostilities, a response they have {not